German Institute for Development Evaluation

The programme: a portfolio analysis on country-specific influences (concluded)

As an instrument for involving the private sector in the field of development cooperation, the programme has been implementing development partnerships with the private sector in this field since 1999. This application of the PS4D idea is intended to encourage companies to become more active in development cooperation in order to benefit from their experience and their specific advantages when it comes to making a contribution to the economic and social development in a partner country. Within the framework of a systematic evaluation, DEval has examined the programme for the period 2009-2015, with part of this being the Portfolio Analysis of the programme described here. Using an innovative project database, it analyses the cross-country allocation pattern of the programme with regard to the making of applications, granting of approval and implementation of projects from 2009 to 2014.

Research subject and goals of the portfolio analysis

The subject of research for the Portfolio Analysis is the distribution of projects across developing and emerging countries, which differ from each other with respect to their political conditions, level of need, market attractivity and specific priority for German development cooperation. Using an innovative database, research was carried out into the extent to which a country-level compatibility exists between the portfolio’s economic interests and its development cooperation-related interests. These two interests are reflected in, for example, the choice of project countries for projects. Factors influencing these interests include the companies taking part in demand-led applications or the main organisations implementing German development cooperation – as part of the project approval and design. Therefore the Portfolio Analysis can help to answer the following questions:

Which country-specific factors enhance or diminish the likelihood of a application by companies?

Which country-specific factors enhance or diminish the likelihood of a application being approved by the implementation organisations?

Which country-specific factors enhance or diminish the likelihood of a project being prematurely discontinued?

Accordingly, the aim of a Portfolio Analysis is to contribute to identifying the influence of country-specific factors on intentions, from an application being submitted through its approval and implementation. This can clarify: 1) to what extent the applicant companies create a systematic influence of private sector economic interests on the design of projects; 2) to what extent there is successful control by implementation organisations in favour of country-specific factors relevant to development policy; 3) whether there is an identifiable harmony or disharmony of interests here; and 4) whether country-specific factors are having an influence on the project failure rate of projects.

Roadmap for the portfolio analysis

• The concept design for the portfolio analysis began in June 2015.

• This was followed by the preparation and evaluation of the available dataset.

• The procedure of the portfolio analysis and initial insights from the evaluation were presented in October 2015 to the reference group and discussed together.

• The draft report was completed in December 2015.

• After discussion of the draft report in the reference group in January 2016, the report will be revised acordingly. 

• The final report of the portfolio analysis is awaited in the first quarter of 2016.

As at: January 2016